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Afghanistan, once more the melting
pot
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - As spring approaches in Afghanistan, a
number of factors are likely to contribute to a
significant escalation of the country's ongoing
guerrilla war.
These include Iran, which fears
the US presence in its region, Pakistan's mafia groups,
a local cartel of Afghan governors-cum-warlords who
foresee no political future for themselves in elections
scheduled for next year, as well as Islamic radicals
looking to regroup for an assault on the United States
and it allies.
The border areas alongside
Pakistan are the hotbed of these activities, notably
around Pakistan's South and North Waziristani belts and
the Chaman area.
Increasing reports are emerging
from Afghanistan of battles between anti-foreign forces
and Afghan militias and US troops, with a number of
casualties on both sides. The main characteristic of the
guerrilla attacks has been what appears to be, for the
first time, a consolidated strategy.
For
instance, the attack that was mainly initiated along the
border of South Waziristan Agency. The Shakin area came
under fierce fire several times. Then sporadic attacks
erupted in Argon, Zabul and Gazni. Once US forces were
engaged in these attacks, the attackers suddenly changed
tactics and briefly occupied Zabul, before fleeing
approaching US gunship helicopters and fighter aircraft,
seemingly conveying the message that the Afghan
administration anywhere other than the capital Kabul is
a house of cards.
This is exactly the same
strategy that the Taliban adopted in 1994 prior to
taking full control of the country. Coincidentally,
before they completely took over Kandahar in 1994,
Zabul, Shakin and Argon were their main playing fields,
as is the case now.
A Pakistani tribal leader in
Wana, which is the headquarters of South Waziristan
Agency, told this correspondent in a telephone interview
that in coming days bigger cities like Gazni and
Kandahar can expect serious turmoil.
The area
with the most unrest is inhabited by the Kharoti and
Siplani tribes. He said that unlike Khost, Paktia and
Gardez, which are situated alongside North Waziristan
Agency, where commanders such as Jalaluddin Haqqani and
Saifullah Mansoor are well-known figures, there is no
trace of mujahideen leaders in the attacks on Zabul,
Argon and Shakin.
Trade between Afghan and
Pakistan tribes knows no borders, and much of it
involves moving smuggled goods. At the same time, the
transport mafias make a mint, so they take exception to
US troops attempting to block them, such as at the check
post at Spin Boldek. Understandably, from their point of
view, they want the troops to go, so they are happy to
lend their support to the anti-US commanders along the
Afghan border, providing them both material help and
sanctuaries when these fighters want to melt into
Pakistan. This was hinted at recently by Afghan interim
leader Hamad Karzai and Foreign Minister Abdullah when
they say that Afghan guerrilla attacks were being
supported from Pakistan.
Meanwhile, with the
fall of Baghdad, Iran has become sandwiched between a
US-dominated Iraq to the west and Afghanistan to the
east, where US troops also have a strong presence. Soon
after the fall of Kabul in early 2002, Asia Times Online
(Iran
unites against American presence ) maintained that
Iran would try to maintain its presence in the western
Afghan province of Herat and would try to influence
events in Afghanistan. Subsequently, the US accused Iran
of trying to support several rebel groups in Herat
against US interests.
The governor of Herat,
Ismail Khan, is accepted as playing a pivotal role in
the anti-US movement, notably by refusing US demands to
disarm warlords in his areas. Khan was one of the more
prominent commanders during the anti-Soviet resistance
movement of the 1980s. When the Soviets made Herat the
hub of their activities, they believed that local army
officers, as well as the population, were docile. But
Khan secretly worked hand-in-gloves with the Islamic
radical movement and staged a massive rebellion in the
garrison, killing many Soviet forces and their families
as well as seizing their weapons. The revolt proved to
be a turning point in the anti-soviet movement in
Afghanistan.
When they fled the country in the
face of the US-led troops in early 2002, the Taliban
peacefully handed over the reigns of power to Ismail
Khan in Herat, which made the US authorities deeply
suspicions of his ultimate motives, especially given his
radical religious beliefs. Furthermore, Iran's support
for his administration in Herat is an open secret.
Former Afghan premier and guerrilla leader
Gulbuddin Hikmatyar has organized his commanders around
Jalalabad and Kunhar in the east, although he is very
much in touch with his loyals in northern Afghanistan.
Mir Arif, the governor of Kunduz, is one of these. And
even though he is an ethnic Uzbek, because he is
associated with Hikmatyar's Pashtun-orientated
Hezb-i-Islami, several Pashtun warlords support Mir
Arif.
The governor is a major supply line for
the rebels, and there is little that the US or the
Karzai administration can do about it. And he has the
potential to rally other commanders as well as General
Abdul Rasheed Dostum in Mazar-i-Sharif into a powerful
anti-US grouping.
Meanwhile, about a year ago
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Afghan cell
rearmed several commanders in Jalalabad, Hilmand, Kunhar
and Paktia - mostly commanders who had been allied with
the Hezb-i-Islami before the Taliban. This was an
attempt for Pakistan to regain a foothold in the country
as its influence had been voided by the fall of the
Taliban.
Ironically, Hikmatyar's reemergence
follows his return to Afghanistan from Iran, from where
he was expelled from exile under US pressure. He roamed
across Afghanistan to regroup his former commanders who
had become independent warlords into an anti-US front.
This situation gave the US a chance to point a
finger at the ISI for its involvement in Afghanistan,
and President General Pervez Musharraf was quick to put
a stop to such behavior by establishing a planning and
strategic division at General Headquarters Rawalpindi.
But already a large amount of ammunition and money had
been moved to the Hezb-i-Islami commanders.
After the rapid retreat of the Taliban, many
Arab, Chechen and Uzbek fighters took refuge in Pakistan
and deserted locations along the Iranian border. But
with the recent guerrilla attacks in southeastern
Afghanistan virtually making administration impossible,
many of these foreign fighters have returned. One of
them is Khalid bin al-Atash, a one-legged Arab fighter
and a key planner within Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda.
Khalid initially fled to Karachi, but after US
intelligence raids he went to Quetta, and then to Iran.
Now he is in Afghanistan.
Given all these
factors, it is apparent that the situation in
Afghanistan is not simply one of local unrest, but once
again a potential breeding point and a safe sanctuary
for an international Islamic resistance front against US
interests where already thousands of Arabs, Chechen and
Uzbek fighters are fast regrouping for a broader role in
the region to harm the interests of the US and its
allies.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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